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West Adelaide vs Para Hills Knights — South Australia NPL 2026

West Adelaide
West Adelaide
Preview
05:30
Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
8/1/2026South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 20Kilburn Sportsplex
Big match
52%
West Adelaide
model favours
52%21%27%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

West Adelaide52%
×Draw21%
Para Hills Knights27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Adelaide
2.13
Para Hills Knights
1.51

West Adelaide creates 41% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 49 away

creates per match

West Adelaide
1.56
Para Hills Knights
1.14

allows per match

West Adelaide
1.89
Para Hills Knights
2.69

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par
Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Para Hills Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw
73%
West Adelaide or Para Hills Knights
79%
Draw or Para Hills Knights
48%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+
31%
Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals
88%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
63%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
35%
Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
78%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
44%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)
65%
Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

Para Hills Knights away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.69 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 1.56 + Para Hills Knights defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.13

Para Hills Knights attack 1.14 + West Adelaide defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

West Adelaide scores more
52%
level
21%
Para Hills Knights scores more
27%

West Adelaide at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Adelaide
LDDLW
Knights
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

West Adelaide vs Para Hills Knights — Match Preview

West Adelaide face Para Hills Knights on August 1, 2026 in this South Australia NPL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

West Adelaide host Para Hills Knights at Kilburn Sportsplex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.