West Adelaide 0–2 Para Hills Knights

West Adelaide

FT

0 – 2

Para Hills Knights

4/10/2021

South Australia State League 1 · Round 1T.K. Shutter Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

West Adelaide41%

×Draw24%

Para Hills Knights35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West AdelaideExpected goals in this matchPara Hills Knights

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.50

West Adelaide

1.63

Para Hills Knights

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 38 away

2.00

creates per match

1.53

1.48

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

West Adelaide

2.00

Para Hills Knights

1.53

allows per match

West Adelaide

1.48

Para Hills Knights

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Para Hills Knights →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw

65%

West Adelaide or Para Hills Knights

76%

Draw or Para Hills Knights

59%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+

21%

Para Hills Knights wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals

80%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

48%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

22%

Para Hills Knights 1+ goals

78%

Para Hills Knights 2+ goals

44%

Para Hills Knights 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

54%

Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

Para Hills Knights away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 2.00 + Para Hills Knights defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.63

Para Hills Knights attack 1.53 + West Adelaide defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

West Adelaide scores more

41%

level

24%

Para Hills Knights scores more

35%

West Adelaide at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff