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West Adelaide vs Adelaide Blue Eagles — South Australia State League 1 2021

West Adelaide
West Adelaide
FT
1 – 3
Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
4/9/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 7Adelaide Shores Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

West Adelaide41%
×Draw22%
Adelaide Blue Eagles37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Adelaide
1.79
Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 53 away

creates per match

West Adelaide
2.00
Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.89

allows per match

West Adelaide
1.48
Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.58

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par
Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Adelaide Blue Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw
63%
West Adelaide or Adelaide Blue Eagles
78%
Draw or Adelaide Blue Eagles
59%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+
21%
Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals
83%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
53%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
26%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
82%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
50%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)
53%
Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 2.00 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 1.89 + West Adelaide defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

West Adelaide scores more
41%
level
22%
Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
37%

West Adelaide at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Adelaide vs Adelaide Blue Eagles

Adelaide Blue Eagles beat West Adelaide 3-1 in South Australia State League 1 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Adelaide Shores Football Centre in Adelaide.