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Wels vs Kalsdorf — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wels
Wels
FT
3 – 3
Kalsdorf
Kalsdorf
10/6/2018Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 11HUBER Arena (Wels)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wels35%
×Draw22%
Kalsdorf43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.64
Kalsdorf
1.84

Kalsdorf creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 79 away

creates per match

Wels
1.17
Kalsdorf
1.20

allows per match

Wels
2.48
Kalsdorf
2.10

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Kalsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Kalsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Wels or draw
57%
Wels or Kalsdorf
78%
Draw or Kalsdorf
65%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
17%
Kalsdorf wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
81%
Wels 2+ goals
49%
Wels 3+ goals
23%
Kalsdorf 1+ goals
84%
Kalsdorf 2+ goals
55%
Kalsdorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
45%
Kalsdorf (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Kalsdorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.10 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Kalsdorf defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.64

Kalsdorf attack 1.20 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wels scores more
35%
level
22%
Kalsdorf scores more
43%

Kalsdorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kalsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wels vs Kalsdorf

Wels and Kalsdorf drew 3-3 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at HUBER Arena (Wels).