Wels 1–1 Deutschlandsberger SC: Result & Stats

Wels

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deutschlandsberger SC

9/21/2018

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 9HUBER Arena (Wels)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wels27%

×Draw22%

Deutschlandsberger SC51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WelsExpected goals in this matchDeutschlandsberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.04

Wels

1.45

Deutschlandsberger SC

2.04

Deutschlandsberger SC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 107 away

1.17

creates per match

1.60

2.48

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Wels

1.17

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.60

allows per match

Wels

2.48

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wels+0.00on par

Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Deutschlandsberger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Wels or draw

49%

Wels or Deutschlandsberger SC

78%

Draw or Deutschlandsberger SC

73%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+

12%

Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals

77%

Wels 2+ goals

42%

Wels 3+ goals

18%

Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals

87%

Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals

60%

Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)

35%

Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Deutschlandsberger SC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.45

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 1.60 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wels scores more

27%

level

22%

Deutschlandsberger SC scores more

51%

Deutschlandsberger SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deutschlandsberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff