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Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney — A-League 2018

Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sydney
Sydney
1/2/2021A-LeagueA-League · Round 2WIN Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Wellington Phoenix39%
×Draw25%
Sydney36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wellington Phoenix
1.44
Sydney
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 112 away

creates per match

Wellington Phoenix
1.57
Sydney
1.46

allows per match

Wellington Phoenix
1.31
Sydney
1.30

finishing

Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par
Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wellington Phoenix ↓

Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wellington Phoenix or draw
64%
Wellington Phoenix or Sydney
75%
Draw or Sydney
61%

Winning margin

Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
18%
Sydney wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
76%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
42%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
18%
Sydney 1+ goals
75%
Sydney 2+ goals
40%
Sydney 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
52%
Sydney (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wellington Phoenix at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Sydney away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.57 + Sydney defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sydney attack 1.46 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wellington Phoenix scores more
39%
level
25%
Sydney scores more
36%

Wellington Phoenix at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wellington Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Wellington Phoenix 1–2 Sydney

Sydney beat Wellington Phoenix 2-1 in A-League on January 2, 2021.

The match was played at WIN Stadium in Wollongong.