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Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory — A-League 2018

Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Perth Glory
Perth Glory
3/26/2022A-LeagueA-League · Round 20Leichhardt Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Wellington Phoenix47%
×Draw24%
Perth Glory29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wellington Phoenix
1.70
Perth Glory
1.27

Wellington Phoenix creates 34% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 106 away

creates per match

Wellington Phoenix
1.57
Perth Glory
1.23

allows per match

Wellington Phoenix
1.31
Perth Glory
1.83

finishing

Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par
Perth Glory+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wellington Phoenix ↓

Perth Glory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wellington Phoenix or draw
71%
Wellington Phoenix or Perth Glory
76%
Draw or Perth Glory
53%

Winning margin

Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
25%
Perth Glory wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
82%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
51%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
24%
Perth Glory 1+ goals
72%
Perth Glory 2+ goals
36%
Perth Glory 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
62%
Perth Glory (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wellington Phoenix at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Perth Glory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.57 + Perth Glory defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Perth Glory attack 1.23 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wellington Phoenix scores more
47%
level
24%
Perth Glory scores more
29%

Wellington Phoenix at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wellington Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Perth Glory

Wellington Phoenix beat Perth Glory 2-1 in A-League on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Leichhardt Oval in Sydney.