Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory

Wellington Phoenix

Preview

02:00

Melbourne Victory

10/18/2026

A-League · Round 1Sky Stadium

Big match

38%

Melbourne Victory

model favours

36%26%38%

Wellington Phoenix win just 25% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Wellington Phoenix36%

×Draw26%

Melbourne Victory38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wellington PhoenixExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.37

Wellington Phoenix

1.33

Melbourne Victory

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.38

creates per match

1.39

1.35

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Wellington Phoenix

1.38

Melbourne Victory

1.39

allows per match

Wellington Phoenix

1.35

Melbourne Victory

1.29

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Wellington Phoenix-0.09on par

Melbourne Victory-0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wellington Phoenix ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wellington Phoenix or draw

62%

Wellington Phoenix or Melbourne Victory

74%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

64%

Winning margin

Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+

16%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals

74%

Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals

38%

Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals

15%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

75%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

40%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)

49%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wellington Phoenix at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.35 · 7 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.38 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Melbourne Victory attack 1.39 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wellington Phoenix scores more

36%

level

26%

Melbourne Victory scores more

38%

Melbourne Victory at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Wellington Phoenix

Balanced

Melbourne Victory

Defensively solid

49%Possession50%

81%Pass accuracy80%

12.3ShotsBiggest gap14.6

1.61xG1.66

Wellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3

Wellington Phoenix

3

Draws

4

Melbourne Victory

Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 50%

1–02–31–52–30–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Phoenix

LWLWW

Victory

LWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff