Wellington Phoenix 1–0 Melbourne Victory

Wellington Phoenix

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Melbourne Victory

11/24/2024

A-League · Round 5Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Wellington Phoenix41%

×Draw25%

Melbourne Victory34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wellington PhoenixExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.33

Wellington Phoenix

1.50

Melbourne Victory

1.33

Wellington Phoenix creates 13% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 109 away

1.57

creates per match

1.36

1.31

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Wellington Phoenix

1.57

Melbourne Victory

1.36

allows per match

Wellington Phoenix

1.31

Melbourne Victory

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wellington Phoenix ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wellington Phoenix or draw

66%

Wellington Phoenix or Melbourne Victory

75%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

59%

Winning margin

Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+

20%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals

78%

Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals

44%

Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals

19%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

74%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

38%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)

55%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wellington Phoenix at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.57 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wellington Phoenix scores more

41%

level

25%

Melbourne Victory scores more

34%

Wellington Phoenix at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wellington Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff