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Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar FC — A-League 2018

Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brisbane Roar FC
Brisbane Roar FC
12/22/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 9Westpac Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Wellington Phoenix47%
×Draw24%
Brisbane Roar FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wellington Phoenix
1.65
Brisbane Roar FC
1.23

Wellington Phoenix creates 34% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 105 away

creates per match

Wellington Phoenix
1.57
Brisbane Roar FC
1.15

allows per match

Wellington Phoenix
1.31
Brisbane Roar FC
1.72

finishing

Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wellington Phoenix ↓

Brisbane Roar FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wellington Phoenix or draw
71%
Wellington Phoenix or Brisbane Roar FC
76%
Draw or Brisbane Roar FC
53%

Winning margin

Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
25%
Brisbane Roar FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
81%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
49%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
23%
Brisbane Roar FC 1+ goals
71%
Brisbane Roar FC 2+ goals
35%
Brisbane Roar FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
62%
Brisbane Roar FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wellington Phoenix at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Brisbane Roar FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.57 + Brisbane Roar FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Brisbane Roar FC attack 1.15 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wellington Phoenix scores more
47%
level
24%
Brisbane Roar FC scores more
29%

Wellington Phoenix at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wellington Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Wellington Phoenix 4–1 Brisbane Roar FC

Wellington Phoenix beat Brisbane Roar FC 4-1 in A-League on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Westpac Stadium in Wellington.