Weiz 2–3 Stadl-Paura: Result & Stats

Weiz

FT

2 – 3

Stadl-Paura

4/26/2019

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 23SIEMENS Energy Stadion (Weiz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Weiz70%

×Draw16%

Stadl-Paura15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WeizExpected goals in this matchStadl-Paura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

1.28

Weiz

2.88

Stadl-Paura

1.28

Weiz creates 125% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 45 away

2.11

creates per match

0.91

1.66

allows per match

3.64

creates per match

Weiz

2.11

Stadl-Paura

0.91

allows per match

Weiz

1.66

Stadl-Paura

3.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weiz+0.00on par

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiz ↓

Stadl-Paura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Weiz or draw

85%

Weiz or Stadl-Paura

84%

Draw or Stadl-Paura

30%

Winning margin

Weiz wins by 2+

49%

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Weiz 1+ goals

94%

Weiz 2+ goals

78%

Weiz 3+ goals

54%

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals

72%

Stadl-Paura 2+ goals

37%

Stadl-Paura 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Weiz (draw refunded)

83%

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiz at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.66 · 107 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiz attack 2.11 + Stadl-Paura defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.88

Stadl-Paura attack 0.91 + Weiz defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Weiz scores more

70%

level

16%

Stadl-Paura scores more

15%

Weiz at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Weiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff