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Weiden vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Weiden
Weiden
Preview
17:00
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
4/30/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31
Big match
52%
Weiden
model favours
52%22%26%
1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Weiden52%
×Draw22%
Würzburger FV26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiden
1.94
Würzburger FV
1.33

Weiden creates 46% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 68 away

creates per match

Weiden
1.88
Würzburger FV
1.31

allows per match

Weiden
1.36
Würzburger FV
2.00

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Weiden or draw
74%
Weiden or Würzburger FV
78%
Draw or Würzburger FV
48%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+
29%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals
86%
Weiden 2+ goals
58%
Weiden 3+ goals
30%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
74%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
38%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)
66%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Weiden scores more
52%
level
22%
Würzburger FV scores more
26%

Weiden at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Weiden
LWDDW
FV
DLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Weiden face Würzburger FV (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Weiden hosting Würzburger FV. Match starts April 30, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.