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Weiden vs Stadeln — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Weiden
Weiden
Preview
17:00
Stadeln
Stadeln
4/9/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 27
59%
Weiden
model favours
59%22%19%
1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Weiden59%
×Draw22%
Stadeln19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiden
1.94
Stadeln
1.02

Weiden creates 90% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 16 away

creates per match

Weiden
1.88
Stadeln
0.69

allows per match

Weiden
1.36
Stadeln
2.00

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par
Stadeln+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Stadeln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Weiden or draw
81%
Weiden or Stadeln
78%
Draw or Stadeln
41%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+
35%
Stadeln wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals
86%
Weiden 2+ goals
58%
Weiden 3+ goals
30%
Stadeln 1+ goals
64%
Stadeln 2+ goals
27%
Stadeln 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)
75%
Stadeln (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Stadeln away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Stadeln defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Stadeln attack 0.69 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Weiden scores more
59%
level
22%
Stadeln scores more
19%

Weiden at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Weiden
LWDDW
Stadeln
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Weiden face Stadeln (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Weiden hosting Stadeln. Match starts April 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.