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Weiden vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Weiden
Weiden
Preview
17:00
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
9/4/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 9
46%
Weiden
model favours
46%22%31%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Weiden46%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Regensburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiden
1.87
Fortuna Regensburg
1.50

Weiden creates 25% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Weiden
1.88
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

Weiden
1.36
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Weiden or draw
69%
Weiden or Fortuna Regensburg
78%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
54%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+
25%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals
85%
Weiden 2+ goals
56%
Weiden 3+ goals
29%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
78%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
44%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)
60%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.87

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Weiden scores more
46%
level
22%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
31%

Weiden at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Weiden
LWDDW
Regensburg
WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Weiden face Fortuna Regensburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Weiden hosting Fortuna Regensburg. Match starts September 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.