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Weiden vs Eintracht Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Weiden
Weiden
Preview
13:00
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
11/7/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 18
39%
Weiden
model favours
39%24%37%

Eintracht Bamberg raise their game against the top half — 56% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Weiden39%
×Draw24%
Eintracht Bamberg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiden
1.57
Eintracht Bamberg
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 33 away

creates per match

Weiden
1.88
Eintracht Bamberg
1.70

allows per match

Weiden
1.36
Eintracht Bamberg
1.27

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Weiden or draw
63%
Weiden or Eintracht Bamberg
76%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
61%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+
19%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals
79%
Weiden 2+ goals
46%
Weiden 3+ goals
21%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
78%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
45%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)
51%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.70 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Weiden scores more
39%
level
24%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
37%

Weiden at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Weiden
LWDDW
Bamberg
LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Weiden vs Eintracht Bamberg — Match Preview

Weiden face Eintracht Bamberg on November 7, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.