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Weiden vs Cham — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Weiden
Weiden
Preview
17:00
Cham
Cham
7/24/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 2
Big match
44%
Weiden
model favours
44%24%32%
1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Weiden44%
×Draw24%
Cham32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiden
1.69
Cham
1.40

Weiden creates 21% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 68 away

creates per match

Weiden
1.88
Cham
1.44

allows per match

Weiden
1.36
Cham
1.49

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Weiden or draw
68%
Weiden or Cham
76%
Draw or Cham
56%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+
23%
Cham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals
82%
Weiden 2+ goals
50%
Weiden 3+ goals
24%
Cham 1+ goals
75%
Cham 2+ goals
41%
Cham 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)
58%
Cham (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Cham away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Cham defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cham attack 1.44 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Weiden scores more
44%
level
24%
Cham scores more
32%

Weiden at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Weiden
LWDDW
Cham
LLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Weiden vs Cham — Match Preview

Weiden face Cham on July 24, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.