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Weißkirchen / Allhaming vs St. Valentin — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
Weißkirchen / Allhaming
CANC
17:00
St. Valentin
St. Valentin
4/20/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 16Sportplatz Weißkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Weißkirchen / Allhaming57%
×Draw21%
St. Valentin22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
2.12
St. Valentin
1.26

Weißkirchen / Allhaming creates 68% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 73 away

creates per match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
2.20
St. Valentin
1.40

allows per match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
1.13
St. Valentin
2.04

finishing

Weißkirchen / Allhaming+0.00on par
St. Valentin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weißkirchen / Allhaming ↓

St. Valentin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Weißkirchen / Allhaming or draw
78%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming or St. Valentin
79%
Draw or St. Valentin
43%

Winning margin

Weißkirchen / Allhaming wins by 2+
34%
St. Valentin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 1+ goals
88%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 2+ goals
62%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 3+ goals
35%
St. Valentin 1+ goals
72%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
36%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Weißkirchen / Allhaming (draw refunded)
72%
St. Valentin (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 89 matches

St. Valentin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming attack 2.20 + St. Valentin defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.12

St. Valentin attack 1.40 + Weißkirchen / Allhaming defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Weißkirchen / Allhaming scores more
57%
level
21%
St. Valentin scores more
22%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Weißkirchen / Allhaming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Weißkirchen / Allhaming host St. Valentin

April 20, 2021: Weißkirchen / Allhaming take on St. Valentin in Landesliga - Oberosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Weißkirchen / Allhaming host St. Valentin at Sportplatz Weißkirchen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.