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Weißkirchen / Allhaming vs Pöttinger Grieskirchen — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
Weißkirchen / Allhaming
FT
2 – 0
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
9/6/2019Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 6Sportplatz Weißkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Weißkirchen / Allhaming60%
×Draw20%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
2.24
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.21

Weißkirchen / Allhaming creates 85% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 29 away

creates per match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
2.20
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.28

allows per match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
1.13
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
2.28

finishing

Weißkirchen / Allhaming+0.00on par
Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weißkirchen / Allhaming ↓

Pöttinger Grieskirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Weißkirchen / Allhaming or draw
80%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming or Pöttinger Grieskirchen
80%
Draw or Pöttinger Grieskirchen
40%

Winning margin

Weißkirchen / Allhaming wins by 2+
38%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 1+ goals
89%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 2+ goals
65%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 3+ goals
38%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals
70%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals
34%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Weißkirchen / Allhaming (draw refunded)
75%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 89 matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming attack 2.20 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.24

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.28 + Weißkirchen / Allhaming defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Weißkirchen / Allhaming scores more
60%
level
20%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more
20%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Weißkirchen / Allhaming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weißkirchen / Allhaming vs Pöttinger Grieskirchen

Weißkirchen / Allhaming beat Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 6, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Weißkirchen in Weißkirchen.