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Wazito FC vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Wazito FC
Wazito FC
FT
2 – 1
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
8/29/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 29Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wazito FC30%
×Draw28%
AFC Leopards42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wazito FC
1.00
AFC Leopards
1.25

AFC Leopards creates 25% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 143 away

creates per match

Wazito FC
1.01
AFC Leopards
1.19

allows per match

Wazito FC
1.31
AFC Leopards
0.99

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw
58%
Wazito FC or AFC Leopards
72%
Draw or AFC Leopards
70%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+
11%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals
63%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
26%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
8%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
71%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
36%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)
41%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + AFC Leopards defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

AFC Leopards attack 1.19 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wazito FC scores more
30%
level
28%
AFC Leopards scores more
42%

AFC Leopards at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Wazito FC 2–1 AFC Leopards

Wazito FC beat AFC Leopards 2-1 in FKF Premier League on August 29, 2018.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).