Watford W vs Saltdean United W

Watford W

PST

13:00

Saltdean United W

11/23/2025

FA Women's Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Watford W64%

×Draw16%

Saltdean United W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Watford WExpected goals in this matchSaltdean United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

1.71

Watford W

3.10

Saltdean United W

1.71

Watford W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

3.71

creates per match

2.00

1.43

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Watford W

3.71

Saltdean United W

2.00

allows per match

Watford W

1.43

Saltdean United W

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford W+0.00on par

Saltdean United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford W ↓

Saltdean United W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Watford W or draw

81%

Watford W or Saltdean United W

84%

Draw or Saltdean United W

36%

Winning margin

Watford W wins by 2+

45%

Saltdean United W wins by 2+

Team goals

Watford W 1+ goals

95%

Watford W 2+ goals

81%

Watford W 3+ goals

58%

Saltdean United W 1+ goals

82%

Saltdean United W 2+ goals

51%

Saltdean United W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Watford W (draw refunded)

77%

Saltdean United W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Watford W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Saltdean United W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Watford W attack 3.71 + Saltdean United W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.10

Saltdean United W attack 2.00 + Watford W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Watford W scores more

64%

level

16%

Saltdean United W scores more

19%

Watford W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Watford W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff