Watford 2–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rotherham

T. Deeney 15'

C. Kabasele 4'

12/8/2020

Championship · Round 17Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Watford58%

×Draw24%

Rotherham18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.81

Watford

1.68

Rotherham

0.81

Watford creates 107% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 12 away

1.29

creates per match

0.47

1.16

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Rotherham

0.47

allows per match

Watford

1.16

Rotherham

2.06

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Watford-0.02on par

Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw

82%

Watford or Rotherham

76%

Draw or Rotherham

42%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

32%

Rotherham wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

81%

Watford 2+ goals

50%

Watford 3+ goals

24%

Rotherham 1+ goals

56%

Rotherham 2+ goals

19%

Rotherham 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

76%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Watford scores more

58%

level

24%

Rotherham scores more

18%

Watford at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

C. Kabasele

Watford · D

9.0

Match Events

4'

C. Kabasele↳ T. Deeney

15'

T. Deeney

46'

M. Olosunde← J. Lindsay

67'

Billy Jones

68'

W. Hughes← T. Cleverley

69'

João Pedro← T. Deeney

69'

F. Jozefzoon← B. Jones

71'

Michael Ihiekwe

79'

F. Ladapo← M. Smith

79'

M. Miller← K. Vassell

79'

T. Clarke← D. Barlaser

84'

J. Garner← K. Sema

90+1'

Domingos Quina← I. Sarr

90+1'

B. Wilmot← Kiko Femenía

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordRotherham

Overview

68%Possession32%

12Total Shots10

2Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target1

8Off Target6

1Blocked3

10Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

551Total Passes245

476Accurate Passes156

86%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

8Offsides0