Watford 1–2 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester United

A. Gray 65'

C. Smalling 38'

R. Lukaku 35'

9/15/2018

Premier League · Round 5Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford32%

×Draw25%

Manchester United43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.50

Watford

1.25

Manchester United

1.50

Manchester United creates 20% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 199 away

1.21

creates per match

1.40

1.61

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Manchester United

1.40

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Manchester United

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Manchester United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Watford or draw

57%

Watford or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

68%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Manchester United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

36%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Manchester United 1+ goals

78%

Manchester United 2+ goals

44%

Manchester United 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

42%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 199 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Manchester United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Manchester United attack 1.40 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Watford scores more

32%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

43%

Manchester United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

C. Smalling

Manchester United · D

7.6

Match Events

34'

Étienne Capoue

35'

R. Lukaku

36'

José Holebas

38'

C. Smalling↳ M. Fellaini

65'

A. Gray↳ A. Doucouré

70'

Nemanja Matić

71'

A. Martial← J. Lingard

72'

Kiko Femenía← D. Janmaat

81'

Antonio Valencia

84'

A. Masina← J. Holebas

84'

S. McTominay← A. Sánchez

88'

I. Success← C. Cathcart

90'

Nemanja Matić

90'

Nemanja Matić

90+2'

E. Bailly← A. Valencia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordManchester

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots9

6Corners8

9Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target6

3Off Target1

6Blocked2

6Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

387Total Passes520

291Accurate Passes419

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides4