Watford 0–6 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Manchester City

R. Sterling 89' (pen)

S. Agüero 81', 31', 27'

N. Otamendi 63'

Gabriel Jesus 37'

9/16/2017

Premier League · Round 5Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford23%

×Draw23%

Manchester City54%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.80

Watford

1.08

Manchester City

1.80

Manchester City creates 67% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 200 away

1.21

creates per match

1.99

1.61

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Manchester City

1.99

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Manchester City

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Manchester City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Watford or draw

46%

Watford or Manchester City

77%

Draw or Manchester City

77%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

8%

Manchester City wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

66%

Watford 2+ goals

29%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

Manchester City 1+ goals

83%

Manchester City 2+ goals

54%

Manchester City 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

30%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 200 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Manchester City defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Manchester City attack 1.99 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Watford scores more

23%

level

23%

Manchester City scores more

54%

Manchester City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Agüero

Manchester City · F

10.0

Match Events

27'

S. Agüero↳ K. De Bruyne

29'

José Holebas

31'

S. Agüero↳ David Silva

37'

Gabriel Jesus↳ S. Agüero

40'

Abdoulaye Doucouré

63'

N. Otamendi↳ David Silva

64'

R. Pereyra← T. Cleverley

65'

Bernardo Silva← Gabriel Jesus

66'

İ. Gündoğan← K. De Bruyne

70'

E. Capoue← N. Chalobah

74'

T. Deeney← A. Gray

78'

L. Sané← David Silva

81'

S. Agüero↳ K. Walker

89'

R. SterlingPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordManchester

Overview

32%Possession68%

7Total Shots28

3Corners11

8Fouls6

Shots

7Total Shots28

1On Target10

5Off Target10

1Blocked8

5Inside Box18

2Outside Box10

Passing

32%Possession68%

312Total Passes637

236Accurate Passes576

76%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0