Watford 3–2 Everton: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Everton

S. Okaka 64', 36'

S. Prödl 59'

R. Lukaku 86', 17'

12/10/2016

Premier League · Round 15Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford38%

×Draw26%

Everton36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.35

Watford

1.38

Everton

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 197 away

1.21

creates per match

1.08

1.61

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Everton

1.08

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Everton

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Everton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Watford or draw

64%

Watford or Everton

74%

Draw or Everton

62%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

17%

Everton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

40%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Everton 1+ goals

74%

Everton 2+ goals

39%

Everton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

51%

Everton (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Everton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.54 · 197 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Everton defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Everton attack 1.08 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Watford scores more

38%

level

26%

Everton scores more

36%

Watford at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

S. Okaka

Watford · F

8.4

Match Events

7'

14'

17'

36'

59'

61'

D. Janmaat← A. Guédioura

62'

Leighton Baines

64'

R. Barkley← I. Gueye

64'

S. Okaka↳ J. Holebas

71'

E. Valencia← K. Mirallas

74'

81'

83'

86'

90+3'

C. Kabasele← C. Zúñiga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordEverton

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots11

2Corners4

11Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots11

6On Target4

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

10Inside Box8

1Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

357Total Passes400

262Accurate Passes287

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3