Watford 2–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

João Pedro 54'

H. Cornick 6' (OG)

4/15/2023

Championship · Round 42Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Watford42%

×Draw27%

Bristol City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.10

Watford

1.32

Bristol City

1.10

Watford creates 20% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 59 away

1.29

creates per match

1.04

1.16

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Bristol City

1.04

allows per match

Watford

1.16

Bristol City

1.35

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Watford-0.02on par

Bristol City-0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

69%

Watford or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

58%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

73%

Watford 2+ goals

38%

Watford 3+ goals

15%

Bristol City 1+ goals

67%

Bristol City 2+ goals

30%

Bristol City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

57%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Watford scores more

42%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

31%

Watford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Bachmann

Watford · G

8.5

Match Events

6'

H. CornickOwn goal

27'

46'

54'

56'

61'

62'

K. Sema← K. Davis

63'

75'

76'

76'

84'

85'

Y. Asprilla← R. Andrews

90+4'

Anis Mehmeti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBristol

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots11

6Corners7

11Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots11

4On Target6

4Off Target3

5Blocked2

8Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

346Total Passes571

266Accurate Passes480

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3

Championship: Watford 2–0 Bristol City

Watford beat Bristol City 2-0 in Championship on April 15, 2023.

Goals: H. Cornick (6' o.g.), João Pedro (54').

Bristol City controlled possession (62%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 2–0 Bristol City