Watford 6–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Bristol City

P. Zinckernagel 90'

I. Sarr 55', 15'

K. Sema 35', 2'

W. Hughes 30'

2/13/2021

Championship · Round 29Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Watford41%

×Draw27%

Bristol City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.13

Watford

1.31

Bristol City

1.13

Watford creates 16% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

1.29

creates per match

1.10

1.16

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Watford

1.16

Bristol City

1.34

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Watford-0.02on par

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

68%

Watford or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

59%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

18%

Bristol City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

73%

Watford 2+ goals

38%

Watford 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

68%

Bristol City 2+ goals

31%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

56%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Watford scores more

41%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

32%

Watford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

I. Sarr

Watford · F

10.0

Match Events

2'

K. Sema

7'

Taylor Moore

15'

I. Sarr↳ T. Cleverley

17'

Nathaniel Chalobah

30'

W. Hughes

35'

K. Sema↳ I. Sarr

46'

D. Gosling← N. Chalobah

46'

A. Mariappa← R. Towler

46'

Á. Nagy← T. Moore

47'

Famara Diédhiou

55'

I. Sarr

61'

A. Gray← K. Sema

61'

P. Zinckernagel← T. Cleverley

63'

T. Bakinson← J. Paterson

73'

K. Palmer← H. Lansbury

77'

A. Lazaar← A. Masina

77'

B. Wilmot← Kiko Femenía

81'

João Pedro

81'

Kasey Palmer

86'

N. Wells← F. Diedhiou

90'

P. Zinckernagel↳ I. Sarr

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBristol

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots4

11Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots4

7On Target1

6Off Target1

4Blocked2

12Inside Box2

5Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

582Total Passes331

504Accurate Passes240

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0