Watford 2–1 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arsenal

T. Cleverley 90+2'

T. Deeney 71' (pen)

P. Mertesacker 39'

10/14/2017

Premier League · Round 8Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford29%

×Draw25%

Arsenal46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.62

Watford

1.23

Arsenal

1.62

Arsenal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 210 away

1.21

creates per match

1.63

1.61

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Arsenal

1.63

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Arsenal

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Watford or draw

54%

Watford or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

71%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Arsenal wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Arsenal 1+ goals

80%

Arsenal 2+ goals

48%

Arsenal 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

38%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 210 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Arsenal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Arsenal attack 1.63 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Watford scores more

29%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

46%

Arsenal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

P. Mertesacker

Arsenal · D

8.2

Match Events

39'

P. Mertesacker↳ G. Xhaka

61'

M. Özil← D. Welbeck

63'

T. Deeney← A. Gray

63'

A. Carrillo← A. Mariappa

64'

Christian Kabasele

68'

O. Giroud← A. Lacazette

71'

T. DeeneyPenalty

81'

E. Capoue← R. Pereyra

85'

R. Holding← L. Koscielny

90+2'

T. Cleverley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordArsenal

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots9

2Corners5

8Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots9

2On Target6

6Off Target3

3Blocked0

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

465Total Passes552

365Accurate Passes442

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0