Waterford 2–1 Wexford: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Wexford

P. Patterson 34'

Junior Quitirna 7' (pen)

C. Crowley 29'

3/11/2022

First Division · Round 4Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Waterford56%

×Draw22%

Wexford22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchWexford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.17

Waterford

2.00

Wexford

1.17

Waterford creates 71% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 118 away

2.28

creates per match

1.19

1.14

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Waterford

2.28

Wexford

1.19

allows per match

Waterford

1.14

Wexford

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par

Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Wexford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

78%

Waterford or Wexford

78%

Draw or Wexford

44%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

33%

Wexford wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

86%

Waterford 2+ goals

59%

Waterford 3+ goals

32%

Wexford 1+ goals

69%

Wexford 2+ goals

33%

Wexford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

72%

Wexford (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.72 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 2.28 + Wexford defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.00

Wexford attack 1.19 + Waterford defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Waterford scores more

56%

level

22%

Wexford scores more

22%

Waterford at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Junior QuitirnaPenalty

29'

33'

34'

38'

52'

54'

58'

65'

66'

Y. En-Neyah← R. Idowu

68'

S. Griffin

79'

T. Considine← A. Friel

83'

N. O'Keeffe← Junior Quitirna

85'

E. Farrell← C. Davis

85'

J. Manley← A. Wells

87'

N. O'Keeffe

Waterford

Wexford

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Quitirna

Britton

Manager: I. Morris

66'▲Y. En-Neyah←▼R. Idowu

83'▲N. O'Keeffe←▼Junior Quitirna

Waterford substitutes

En-NeyahO'KeeffeStringerLarkinJoshuaArisMartinAkachukwuSobowale

Manager: I. Ryan

65'▲C. Barry←▼H. Groome

79'▲T. Considine←▼A. Friel

85'▲E. Farrell←▼C. Davis

85'▲J. Manley←▼A. Wells

Wexford substitutes

BarryConsidineFarrellManleyMoodyTallonMcEvoyScanlonByrne

First Division: Waterford 2–1 Wexford

Waterford beat Wexford 2-1 in First Division on March 11, 2022.

Goals: Junior Quitirna (7' pen), C. Crowley (29'), P. Patterson (34').

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.

Waterford vs Wexford — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Waterford 2–1 Wexford