Waterford 4–1 Dundalk: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Dundalk

M. Asamoah 76', 44', 2'

C. Pattisson 53'

R. Benson 22'

5/10/2024

Premier Division · Round 15Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Waterford35%

×Draw27%

Dundalk38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchDundalk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.29

Waterford

1.24

Dundalk

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

1.26

creates per match

1.20

1.39

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Waterford

1.26

Dundalk

1.20

allows per match

Waterford

1.39

Dundalk

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par

Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Dundalk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

62%

Waterford or Dundalk

73%

Draw or Dundalk

65%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

15%

Dundalk wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

71%

Waterford 2+ goals

35%

Waterford 3+ goals

13%

Dundalk 1+ goals

72%

Dundalk 2+ goals

37%

Dundalk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

48%

Dundalk (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.26 + Dundalk defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Dundalk attack 1.20 + Waterford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Waterford scores more

35%

level

27%

Dundalk scores more

38%

Dundalk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Asamoah

Waterford · M

9.2

Match Events

2'

22'

35'

36'

44'

M. Asamoah↳ C. Parsons

52'

J. Mountney← R. Benson

53'

54'

64'

65'

67'

B. McCormack← D. McMenamy

67'

H. Macadam← C. Parsons

72'

N. O'Keeffe← R. McDonald

76'

78'

82'

82'

87'

S. Durrant← J. Gullan

87'

R. O'Kane← D. Horgan

89'

Kacper Radkowski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaterfordDundalk

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots12

4Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots12

5On Target2

1Off Target3

1Blocked7

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

372Total Passes384

269Accurate Passes282

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Premier Division: Waterford 4–1 Dundalk

Waterford beat Dundalk 4-1 in Premier Division on May 10, 2024.

Goals: M. Asamoah (2', 44', 76'), R. Benson (22'), C. Pattisson (53').

Dundalk controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.

Waterford vs Dundalk — Premier Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier Division: Waterford 4–1 Dundalk