Waterford 4–2 Drogheda United: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Drogheda United

D. Power 74'

P. Amond 68', 59', 55'

Z. Bawa 46'

A. Foley 20'

5/23/2024

Premier Division · Round 17Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Waterford50%

×Draw23%

Drogheda United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchDrogheda United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.31

Waterford

1.87

Drogheda United

1.31

Waterford creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.53

creates per match

1.04

1.57

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Waterford

1.53

Drogheda United

1.04

allows per match

Waterford

1.57

Drogheda United

2.21

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Waterford+0.14scores more

Drogheda United+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Drogheda United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

73%

Waterford or Drogheda United

77%

Draw or Drogheda United

50%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

28%

Drogheda United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

85%

Waterford 2+ goals

56%

Waterford 3+ goals

29%

Drogheda United 1+ goals

73%

Drogheda United 2+ goals

38%

Drogheda United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

65%

Drogheda United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

Drogheda United away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.21 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.53 + Drogheda United defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.87

Drogheda United attack 1.04 + Waterford defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Waterford scores more

50%

level

23%

Drogheda United scores more

27%

Waterford at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

P. Amond

Waterford · F

9.2

Match Events

6'

D. McMenamy← H. Macadam

20'

A. Foley↳ A. Wogan

46'

Z. Bawa↳ A. Foley

55'

P. Amond↳ B. McCormack

59'

P. Amond↳ M. Asamoah

63'

O. Gallagher← R. Brennan

67'

K. Cailloce← F. Pierrot

68'

P. Amond↳ D. McMenamy

69'

Hayden Cann

74'

D. Power

86'

C. Parsons← M. Asamoah

87'

R. Akachukwu← B. McCormack

90+2'

N. O'Keeffe← R. McDonald

90+2'

C. Evans← C. Pattisson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaterfordDrogheda

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots6

7Corners1

11Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots6

6On Target2

1Off Target3

3Blocked1

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

428Total Passes271

333Accurate Passes172

78%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3