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Waterford vs Derry City — Premier Division 2025

Waterford
Waterford
Preview
18:45
Derry City
Derry City
9/4/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 30Regional Sports Centre
Big match
38%
Derry City
model favours
35%27%38%

Waterford score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Waterford35%
×Draw27%
Derry City38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterford
1.21
Derry City
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Waterford
1.23
Derry City
1.10

allows per match

Waterford
1.45
Derry City
1.19

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par
Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Waterford or draw
62%
Waterford or Derry City
73%
Draw or Derry City
65%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+
15%
Derry City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals
70%
Waterford 2+ goals
34%
Waterford 3+ goals
12%
Derry City 1+ goals
72%
Derry City 2+ goals
36%
Derry City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)
48%
Derry City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.23 + Derry City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Derry City attack 1.10 + Waterford defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Waterford scores more
35%
level
27%
Derry City scores more
38%

Derry City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Derry City have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 71% of Derry City’s matches
  • Even after scoring first, Derry City win only 50%
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 7 meetings
  • Style contrast — Waterford play Direct / counter-attacking, Derry City Defensively solid
  • Their last 7 meetings averaged 4.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Waterford
Direct / counter-attacking
Derry City
Defensively solid
41%PossessionBiggest gap54%
64%Pass accuracy72%
11.0Shots12.6
1.31xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WaterfordDerry City

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

3
Waterford
1
Draws
3
Derry City
Avg goals: 4.9BTTS: 100%
4–22–22–41–22–7

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Waterford
DWWLW
City
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Waterford face Derry City (Premier Division)

Premier Division returns with Waterford hosting Derry City. Match starts September 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Waterford host Derry City at Regional Sports Centre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.