Waterford 0–2 Derry City: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Derry City

P. Hoban 74'

W. Patching 38' (pen)

4/26/2024

Premier Division · Round 12Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Waterford44%

×Draw26%

Derry City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchDerry City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.15

Waterford

1.47

Derry City

1.15

Waterford creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

0.72

1.57

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Waterford

1.53

Derry City

0.72

allows per match

Waterford

1.57

Derry City

1.41

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

Waterford+0.14scores more

Derry City+0.68scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Derry City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

70%

Waterford or Derry City

74%

Draw or Derry City

56%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

22%

Derry City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

77%

Waterford 2+ goals

43%

Waterford 3+ goals

18%

Derry City 1+ goals

68%

Derry City 2+ goals

32%

Derry City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

60%

Derry City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

Derry City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.53 + Derry City defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Derry City attack 0.72 + Waterford defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Waterford scores more

44%

level

26%

Derry City scores more

30%

Waterford at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Kelly

Derry City · M

8.2

Match Events

35'

D. Kelly← B. Doherty

37'

Robert McCourt

38'

W. PatchingPenalty

56'

Pat Hoban

63'

C. Evans← M. Asamoah

74'

P. Hoban

76'

C. Pattisson← B. McCormack

76'

K. Radkowski← R. McCourt

76'

M. Duffy← D. Mullen

81'

Kacper Radkowski

82'

Michael Duffy

88'

D. McMenamy← H. Macadam

90+1'

Connor Evans

90'

C. Harkin← P. McMullan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaterfordDerry

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots15

6Corners4

15Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots15

1On Target5

4Off Target7

8Blocked3

6Inside Box12

7Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

316Total Passes389

210Accurate Passes278

66%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Premier Division: Waterford 0–2 Derry City

Derry City beat Waterford 2-0 in Premier Division on April 26, 2024.

Goals: W. Patching (38' pen), P. Hoban (74').

Derry City controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.

Waterford vs Derry City — Premier Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier Division: Waterford 0–2 Derry City