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Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
Y. Honda 48'
Andrei Girotto 8'
4/29/2016J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 10KINCHO Stadium (Ōsaka (Osaka))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Cerezo Osaka36%
×Draw26%
Kyoto Sanga38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.33
Kyoto Sanga
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 86 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.60
Kyoto Sanga
1.15

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.60
Kyoto Sanga
1.07

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
62%
Cerezo Osaka or Kyoto Sanga
74%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
64%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
16%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
74%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
38%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
15%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
75%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
40%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
48%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.07 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.60 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.15 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
36%
level
26%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
38%

Kyoto Sanga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Andrei Girotto
48'
Y. Honda
52'
Ricardo Santos← K. Sekiguchi
68'
T. Ohgihara← Souza
68'
S. Escudero← Daniel Lovinho
78'
Y. Tanaka← T. Moniwa
78'
K. Arita← Yong-Jae Lee
87'
I. Kokuryo← Y. Horigome

Match Recap: Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga

Kyoto Sanga beat Cerezo Osaka 2-0 in J2 League on April 29, 2016.

Goals: Andrei Girotto (8'), Y. Honda (48').

The match was played at KINCHO Stadium (Ōsaka (Osaka)).