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Washington Spirit W vs Angel City W — NWSL Women 2026

Washington Spirit W
Washington Spirit W
Preview
22:30
Angel City W
Angel City W
9/26/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageAudi Field
Big match
45%
Washington Spirit W
model favours
45%26%29%

Washington Spirit W score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Washington Spirit W45%
×Draw26%
Angel City W29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Washington Spirit W
1.49
Angel City W
1.14

Washington Spirit W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 55 away

creates per match

Washington Spirit W
1.56
Angel City W
1.15

allows per match

Washington Spirit W
1.13
Angel City W
1.42

finishing

Washington Spirit W+0.00on par
Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Washington Spirit W ↓

Angel City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Washington Spirit W or draw
71%
Washington Spirit W or Angel City W
74%
Draw or Angel City W
55%

Winning margin

Washington Spirit W wins by 2+
22%
Angel City W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Washington Spirit W 1+ goals
77%
Washington Spirit W 2+ goals
44%
Washington Spirit W 3+ goals
19%
Angel City W 1+ goals
68%
Angel City W 2+ goals
32%
Angel City W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Washington Spirit W (draw refunded)
61%
Angel City W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Washington Spirit W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 82 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Washington Spirit W attack 1.56 + Angel City W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.49

Angel City W attack 1.15 + Washington Spirit W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Washington Spirit W scores more
45%
level
26%
Angel City W scores more
29%

Washington Spirit W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • Angel City W fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Washington Spirit W outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.3 expected)
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Washington Spirit W
Defensively solid
Angel City W
Balanced
53%Possession52%
79%Pass accuracy78%
12.9Shots11.1
1.32xGBiggest gap1.62
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Washington Spirit WAngel City W

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
Washington Spirit W
1
Draws
3
Angel City W
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 75%
2–23–42–14–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LWWWL
W
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Washington Spirit W host Angel City W

September 26, 2026: Washington Spirit W take on Angel City W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Washington Spirit W host Angel City W at Audi Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.