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Warta Gorzów vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
9/9/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Warta Gorzów35%
×Draw25%
Górnik Polkowice40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Gorzów
1.35
Górnik Polkowice
1.48

Górnik Polkowice creates 10% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

creates per match

Warta Gorzów
1.36
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Warta Gorzów
1.41
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Gorzów ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Warta Gorzów or draw
60%
Warta Gorzów or Górnik Polkowice
75%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
65%

Winning margin

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
15%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
74%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
39%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
15%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
77%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
43%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
46%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Gorzów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Gorzów attack 1.36 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Warta Gorzów scores more
35%
level
25%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
40%

Górnik Polkowice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Warta Gorzów 0–0 Górnik Polkowice

Warta Gorzów and Górnik Polkowice drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.