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Walsall vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
Preview
14:00
Tranmere
Tranmere
4/24/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 43Bescot Stadium
Big match
40%
Tranmere
model favours
33%27%40%
1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Walsall33%
×Draw27%
Tranmere40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.14
Tranmere
1.30

Tranmere creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Walsall
0.88
Tranmere
1.18

allows per match

Walsall
1.42
Tranmere
1.39

finishing

Walsall-0.10scores less
Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
60%
Walsall or Tranmere
73%
Draw or Tranmere
67%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
13%
Tranmere wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
68%
Walsall 2+ goals
32%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%
Tranmere 1+ goals
73%
Tranmere 2+ goals
37%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
45%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.42 · 9 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 0.88 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Walsall defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Walsall scores more
33%
level
27%
Tranmere scores more
40%

Tranmere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
Tranmere
Balanced
43%Possession50%
63%Pass accuracy67%
11.7Shots12.0
1.39xGBiggest gap1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WalsallTranmere

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
Walsall
1
Draws
3
Tranmere
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%
3–14–25–10–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Walsall
LDLLW
Tranmere
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Walsall host Tranmere

April 24, 2027: Walsall take on Tranmere in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Walsall host Tranmere at Bescot Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.