Walsall 0–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

E. Nevitt 90+6'

9/24/2022

League Two · Round 11Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Walsall36%

×Draw28%

Tranmere36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

Walsall

1.21

Tranmere

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.01

creates per match

1.15

1.27

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Tranmere

1.42

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

64%

Walsall or Tranmere

72%

Draw or Tranmere

64%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Tranmere wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

70%

Walsall 2+ goals

34%

Walsall 3+ goals

12%

Tranmere 1+ goals

70%

Tranmere 2+ goals

34%

Tranmere 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

50%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Walsall scores more

36%

level

28%

Tranmere scores more

36%

Walsall at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Turnbull

Tranmere · D

7.7

Match Events

29'

38'

46'

54'

58'

61'

67'

B. Comley← A. Williams

88'

D. James-Taylor← T. Knowles

90+6'

E. Nevitt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallTranmere

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots7

4Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target6

7Off Target1

1Blocked0

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

322Total Passes421

176Accurate Passes279

55%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1