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Walsall vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
C. Wilkinson 85' (pen)
2/12/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Walsall36%
×Draw28%
Tranmere36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.21
Tranmere
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Tranmere
1.15

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Tranmere
1.42

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
64%
Walsall or Tranmere
72%
Draw or Tranmere
64%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
15%
Tranmere wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
70%
Walsall 2+ goals
34%
Walsall 3+ goals
12%
Tranmere 1+ goals
70%
Tranmere 2+ goals
34%
Tranmere 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
50%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Walsall scores more
36%
level
28%
Tranmere scores more
36%

Walsall at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. KinsellaWalsallWalsall · M
7.9

Match Events

24'
Liam Kinsella
28'
George Miller
47'
Lewis Warrington
61'
E. Nevitt← C. Jolley
62'
J. McPake← J. Hawkes
76'
S. Foley← L. Warrington
77'
J. Earing← S. Perry
85'
C. WilkinsonPenalty
86'
E. Osadebe← G. Miller
89'
R. Menayese← T. Shade

Possession

53%Walsall

Shots

7Walsall

Pass accuracy

53%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallTranmere
Overview
53%Possession47%
7Total Shots7
6Corners6
14Fouls16
Shots
7Total Shots7
1On Target1
5Off Target4
1Blocked2
6Inside Box5
1Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
347Total Passes323
216Accurate Passes173
62%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls16
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

League Two: Walsall 1–0 Tranmere

Walsall beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on February 12, 2022.

Goals: C. Wilkinson (85' pen).

Walsall controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.