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Walsall vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
E. Osadebe 70'
4/13/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Walsall36%
×Draw28%
Tranmere36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.21
Tranmere
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Tranmere
1.15

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Tranmere
1.42

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
64%
Walsall or Tranmere
72%
Draw or Tranmere
64%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
15%
Tranmere wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
70%
Walsall 2+ goals
34%
Walsall 3+ goals
12%
Tranmere 1+ goals
70%
Tranmere 2+ goals
34%
Tranmere 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
50%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Walsall scores more
36%
level
28%
Tranmere scores more
36%

Walsall at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. KinsellaWalsallWalsall · M
7.3

Match Events

46'
C. Norman← T. Leak
49'
Jay Spearing
62'
L. O'Connor← K. Woolery
62'
D. Lloyd← A. Crawford
67'
C. Lavery← J. Gordon
67'
W. McDonald← R. Holden
68'
J. Vaughan← D. Nugent
70'
E. Osadebe↳ M. Melbourne
74'
Jay Spearing
74'
Jay Spearing
78'
Paul Lewis
80'
K. Morris← L. Feeney
90'
James Vaughan
90+3'
A. Bates← T. Wright

Possession

45%Walsall

Shots

7Walsall

Pass accuracy

48%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallTranmere
Overview
45%Possession55%
7Total Shots6
3Corners4
8Fouls20
Shots
7Total Shots6
4On Target1
3Off Target4
0Blocked1
2Inside Box6
5Outside Box0
Passing
45%Possession55%
393Total Passes469
237Accurate Passes302
60%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls20
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

League Two: Walsall 1–0 Tranmere

Walsall beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on April 13, 2021.

Goals: E. Osadebe (70').

Tranmere controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 7.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.