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Walsall vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
E. Adebayo 45'
A. MacDonald 68'
A. Cook 30'
10/26/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 141+ matches

Walsall36%
×Draw27%
Mansfield Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.23
Mansfield Town
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 141 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Mansfield Town
1.25

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Mansfield Town
1.16

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
64%
Walsall or Mansfield Town
73%
Draw or Mansfield Town
64%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
16%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
71%
Walsall 2+ goals
35%
Walsall 3+ goals
13%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
71%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
35%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
50%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Walsall scores more
36%
level
27%
Mansfield Town scores more
36%

Walsall at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. AdebayoWalsallWalsall · F
7.9

Match Events

17'
Alex MacDonald
26'
E. Adebayo← J. Gordon
30'
A. Cook↳ O. Khan
37'
Stuart Sinclair
45'
E. Adebayo↳ R. Holden
59'
M. Preston← K. Pearce
63'
D. Guthrie← A. Bates
68'
A. MacDonald
72'
W. McDonald← R. Holden
88'
C. Hamilton← N. Maynard
90+1'
O. Afolayan← A. Cook

Possession

50%Walsall

Shots

14Walsall

Pass accuracy

50%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallMansfield
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots11
5Corners5
17Fouls18
Shots
14Total Shots11
6On Target4
4Off Target5
4Blocked2
11Inside Box5
3Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
359Total Passes355
248Accurate Passes249
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
17Fouls18
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Walsall vs Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town beat Walsall 2-1 in League Two on October 26, 2019.

Goals: A. Cook (30'), E. Adebayo (45'), A. MacDonald (68').

Walsall controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.