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Walsall vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
Preview
14:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
10/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Bescot Stadium
Big match
40%
Crawley Town
model favours
35%25%40%

Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Walsall35%
×Draw25%
Crawley Town40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.34
Crawley Town
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Walsall
0.88
Crawley Town
1.51

allows per match

Walsall
1.42
Crawley Town
1.80

finishing

Walsall-0.10scores less
Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
60%
Walsall or Crawley Town
75%
Draw or Crawley Town
65%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
15%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
74%
Walsall 2+ goals
39%
Walsall 3+ goals
15%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
77%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
43%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
46%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.42 · 9 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 0.88 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Walsall defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Walsall scores more
35%
level
25%
Crawley Town scores more
40%

Crawley Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
Crawley Town
Balanced
43%PossessionBiggest gap54%
63%Pass accuracy71%
11.6Shots12.7
1.39xG1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WalsallCrawley Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Walsall
7
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Avg goals: 1.5BTTS: 60%
0–01–11–11–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Walsall
LDLLW
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Walsall host Crawley Town

October 3, 2026: Walsall take on Crawley Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Walsall host Crawley Town at Bescot Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.