Walsall 2–1 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Crawley Town

D. Johnson 90+2'

H. White 14'

D. Telford 11'

11/19/2022

League Two · Round 19Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Walsall39%

×Draw26%

Crawley Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.34

Walsall

1.40

Crawley Town

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.01

creates per match

1.42

1.27

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Crawley Town

1.42

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Crawley Town

1.79

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Crawley Town-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

64%

Walsall or Crawley Town

74%

Draw or Crawley Town

61%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

18%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

75%

Walsall 2+ goals

41%

Walsall 3+ goals

17%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

74%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

39%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

52%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Crawley Town defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Crawley Town attack 1.42 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Walsall scores more

39%

level

26%

Crawley Town scores more

36%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

H. White

Walsall · D

8.2

Match Events

11'

D. Telford↳ A. Nadesan

14'

26'

39'

39'

42'

57'

58'

58'

A. Williams← L. Bennett

88'

D. James-Taylor← J. Maddox

89'

T. Allen← L. Gordon

90+5'

Tom Nichols

90+4'

Joel Lynch

90+1'

T. Fellows← A. Nadesan

90+2'

D. Johnson↳ I. Hutchinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallCrawley

Overview

58%Possession42%

24Total Shots6

8Corners2

9Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots6

9On Target2

11Off Target2

4Blocked2

15Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

402Total Passes305

307Accurate Passes198

76%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls12

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

4Offsides0