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Walsall vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
Preview
14:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
8/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Bescot Stadium
Big match
42%
Walsall
model favours
42%27%31%
1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Walsall42%
×Draw27%
Accrington ST31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.31
Accrington ST
1.09

Walsall creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.06
Accrington ST
0.79

allows per match

Walsall
1.39
Accrington ST
1.55

finishing

Walsall-0.06on par
Accrington ST-0.23scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
69%
Walsall or Accrington ST
73%
Draw or Accrington ST
58%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
19%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
73%
Walsall 2+ goals
38%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
66%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
30%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
57%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.55 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.06 + Accrington ST defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Accrington ST attack 0.79 + Walsall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Walsall scores more
42%
level
27%
Accrington ST scores more
31%

Walsall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
Accrington ST
Balanced
43%Possession47%
64%Pass accuracy62%
12.0Shots11.5
1.47xGBiggest gap0.89
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WalsallAccrington ST

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
Walsall
2
Draws
4
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 50%
0–03–10–10–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Walsall
LDLLW
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Walsall vs Accrington ST — Match Preview

Walsall face Accrington ST on August 29, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Walsall host Accrington ST at Bescot Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.