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Waidhofen / Thaya vs Schrems — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Waidhofen / Thaya
Waidhofen / Thaya
FT
1 – 1
Schrems
Schrems
9/24/2021Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 7Birkenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Waidhofen / Thaya41%
×Draw25%
Schrems34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waidhofen / Thaya
1.47
Schrems
1.33

Waidhofen / Thaya creates 11% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 85 away

creates per match

Waidhofen / Thaya
0.93
Schrems
1.22

allows per match

Waidhofen / Thaya
1.44
Schrems
2.00

finishing

Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par
Schrems+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waidhofen / Thaya ↓

Schrems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Waidhofen / Thaya or draw
66%
Waidhofen / Thaya or Schrems
75%
Draw or Schrems
59%

Winning margin

Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+
19%
Schrems wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals
77%
Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals
43%
Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals
18%
Schrems 1+ goals
74%
Schrems 2+ goals
38%
Schrems 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)
54%
Schrems (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waidhofen / Thaya at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.44 · 54 matches

Schrems away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.93 + Schrems defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Schrems attack 1.22 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Waidhofen / Thaya scores more
41%
level
25%
Schrems scores more
34%

Waidhofen / Thaya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Waidhofen / Thaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waidhofen / Thaya vs Schrems

Waidhofen / Thaya and Schrems drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on September 24, 2021.

The match was played at Birkenstadion in Waidhofen/Thaya.