Vasby United 2–1 Gais: Result & Stats | Superettan

Vasby United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gais

O. Nnamani 86', 10'

A. Östling 45+2'

9/3/2018

Superettan · Round 21Tunavallen (Eskilstuna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Vasby United45%

×Draw26%

Gais29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasby UnitedExpected goals in this matchGais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.08

Vasby United

1.43

Gais

1.08

Vasby United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 76 away

1.59

creates per match

1.21

0.95

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Vasby United

1.59

Gais

1.21

allows per match

Vasby United

0.95

Gais

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasby United+0.00on par

Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasby United ↓

Gais →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vasby United or draw

71%

Vasby United or Gais

74%

Draw or Gais

55%

Winning margin

Vasby United wins by 2+

22%

Gais wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vasby United 1+ goals

76%

Vasby United 2+ goals

42%

Vasby United 3+ goals

17%

Gais 1+ goals

66%

Gais 2+ goals

29%

Gais 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vasby United (draw refunded)

61%

Gais (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasby United at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Gais away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasby United attack 1.59 + Gais defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Gais attack 1.21 + Vasby United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vasby United scores more

45%

level

26%

Gais scores more

29%

Vasby United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vasby United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

36'

45+2'

66'

66'

Mahmoud Eid← L. Pllana

78'

79'

86'

87'

Vasby

Gais

1

18

14

13

4

2

⚽

▼

Östling

17

Olsson

16

Wängberg

21

▼

Bohm

9

Hamidovic

10

▼

1

77

22

19

2

26

3

21

14

▼

Miljević

9

▼

Ajeti

16

⚽2

▼

Nnamani

Manager: N. Miljanovic

36'▲O. Camara←▼B. Ajeti

78'▲G. Jarl←▼K. Miljević

87'▲Wellyson←▼O. Nnamani

Vasby United substitutes

8Camara5Jarl94Wellyson7Ali18Akpoveta31Lagoun4Pelé

Manager: B. Orovic

66'▲J. Svahn←▼A. Östling

66'▲Mahmoud Eid←▼L. Pllana

79'▲D. Djuric←▼K. Bohm

Gais substitutes

7Svahn25Eid20Djuric8Westermark11Bennassar-Nilsson12Westermark27Nadj