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Wacker Nordhausen vs Einheit Rudolstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Wacker Nordhausen
Wacker Nordhausen
CANC
12:30
Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
11/1/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 10Kunstrasen AKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wacker Nordhausen41%
×Draw23%
Einheit Rudolstadt35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Nordhausen
1.67
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.52

Wacker Nordhausen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 82 away

creates per match

Wacker Nordhausen
1.22
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.40

allows per match

Wacker Nordhausen
1.65
Einheit Rudolstadt
2.13

finishing

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par
Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Nordhausen ↓

Einheit Rudolstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wacker Nordhausen or draw
65%
Wacker Nordhausen or Einheit Rudolstadt
77%
Draw or Einheit Rudolstadt
59%

Winning margin

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+
21%
Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals
81%
Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals
50%
Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals
23%
Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
78%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
45%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)
54%
Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Nordhausen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Einheit Rudolstadt away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.22 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.40 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wacker Nordhausen scores more
41%
level
23%
Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
35%

Wacker Nordhausen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wacker Nordhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wacker Nordhausen face Einheit Rudolstadt (Oberliga - Nordost-Süd)

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd returns with Wacker Nordhausen hosting Einheit Rudolstadt. Match starts November 1, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Wacker Nordhausen host Einheit Rudolstadt at Kunstrasen AKS.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.