Wacker Innsbruck W vs Sturm Graz W

Wacker Innsbruck W

CANC

00:00

Sturm Graz W

4/26/2020

Frauenliga · Round 14Sportplatz Wiesengasse C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Wacker Innsbruck W13%

×Draw16%

Sturm Graz W71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker Innsbruck WExpected goals in this matchSturm Graz W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

2.66

Wacker Innsbruck W

1.06

Sturm Graz W

2.66

Sturm Graz W creates 151% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 65 away

1.07

creates per match

2.18

3.13

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Wacker Innsbruck W

1.07

Sturm Graz W

2.18

allows per match

Wacker Innsbruck W

3.13

Sturm Graz W

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Innsbruck W+0.00on par

Sturm Graz W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Innsbruck W ↓

Sturm Graz W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Wacker Innsbruck W or draw

29%

Wacker Innsbruck W or Sturm Graz W

84%

Draw or Sturm Graz W

87%

Winning margin

Wacker Innsbruck W wins by 2+

4%

Sturm Graz W wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Wacker Innsbruck W 1+ goals

65%

Wacker Innsbruck W 2+ goals

29%

Wacker Innsbruck W 3+ goals

9%

Sturm Graz W 1+ goals

93%

Sturm Graz W 2+ goals

74%

Sturm Graz W 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Wacker Innsbruck W (draw refunded)

15%

Sturm Graz W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Innsbruck W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 3.13 · 40 matches

Sturm Graz W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Innsbruck W attack 1.07 + Sturm Graz W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sturm Graz W attack 2.18 + Wacker Innsbruck W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Wacker Innsbruck W scores more

13%

level

16%

Sturm Graz W scores more

71%

Sturm Graz W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sturm Graz W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff