Vysočina Jihlava U19 0–2 Sparta Praha U19

Vysočina Jihlava U19

FT

0 – 2

Sparta Praha U19

10/14/2022

1. Liga U19 · Round 11Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava U1929%

×Draw22%

Sparta Praha U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysočina Jihlava U19Expected goals in this matchSparta Praha U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.00

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.50

Sparta Praha U19

2.00

Sparta Praha U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 79 away

1.63

creates per match

2.16

1.85

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.63

Sparta Praha U19

2.16

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.85

Sparta Praha U19

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par

Sparta Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava U19 ↓

Sparta Praha U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava U19 or draw

51%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 or Sparta Praha U19

78%

Draw or Sparta Praha U19

71%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+

13%

Sparta Praha U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals

78%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals

44%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals

19%

Sparta Praha U19 1+ goals

86%

Sparta Praha U19 2+ goals

59%

Sparta Praha U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Sparta Praha U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

Sparta Praha U19 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.37 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.63 + Sparta Praha U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sparta Praha U19 attack 2.16 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more

29%

level

22%

Sparta Praha U19 scores more

49%

Sparta Praha U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sparta Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff