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Vyškov vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vyškov
Vyškov
FT
2 – 1
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
9/28/20193. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 9Stadion Za parkem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vyškov51%
×Draw23%
Slovan Rosice26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vyškov
1.79
Slovan Rosice
1.22

Vyškov creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vyškov
2.33
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Vyškov
1.17
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw
74%
Vyškov or Slovan Rosice
77%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
49%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+
28%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals
83%
Vyškov 2+ goals
53%
Vyškov 3+ goals
26%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
70%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
34%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)
66%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 2.33 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.79

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Vyškov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vyškov scores more
51%
level
23%
Slovan Rosice scores more
26%

Vyškov at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Vyškov 2–1 Slovan Rosice

Vyškov beat Slovan Rosice 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Za parkem in Vyškov.