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VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
1/14/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 22Covebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

VVV Venlo43%
×Draw23%
Jong PSV U2133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVV Venlo
1.73
Jong PSV U21
1.49

VVV Venlo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 149 away

creates per match

VVV Venlo
1.41
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

VVV Venlo
1.46
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw
67%
VVV Venlo or Jong PSV U21
77%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
57%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+
23%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals
82%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
52%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
25%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
77%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
44%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
57%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

VVV Venlo scores more
43%
level
23%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
33%

VVV Venlo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: VVV Venlo 1–4 Jong PSV U21

Jong PSV U21 beat VVV Venlo 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 14, 2022.

The match was played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Venlo.